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轉載《金融時報》:北京重新檢討高鐵計劃

轉載《金融時報》:北京重新檢討高鐵計劃

網友翻譯自2010年11月7日《金融時報》頭版,由該報北京記者 Jamil Anderlini 報導。

受到由國家支持、具影響力的智庫對高鐵計劃的經濟負擔能力和實用性的質疑,中國鐵道部在正對該國大膽的高鐵計劃進行檢討。

在一份由中國科學院呈交國務院的報告中,專家力主重新考慮應否對基建大量投資,尤其是對於高鐵擴展的計劃。

報告指出的其中一個考慮是由於推動鐵路建設計劃而導致的大量債務,特別是在中國政府在2008年底展開抵抗全球經濟危機的刺激經濟措施之後。

報告發現刺激經濟措施展開之後,基建投資的加速引致了國內交通服務失去整合,高速公路、地下鐵路、鐵路站和機場未能恰當連接。

消息人士指,中國總理溫家寶閱讀報告後要求進一步討論目前高速鐵路的計劃。

這次檢討──以及可能隨之而來的縮減──之時,地方官員看來正處於高鐵熱潮之中。

根據分析員和中國媒體報導,各個地方政府曾向北京當局請示擴張高鐵網絡,比原來已經雄心勃勃的認可目標多出 80%。

在目前的計劃下,中央政府批准的高速鐵路網絡將在2020年長達16萬公里,服務超過其90%的人口。

但在刺激經濟措施下,政府在2009和2010年把計劃的鐡路投資增加了超過一倍,預期在2012年底將建成13萬公里的鐵路。根據國際鐵路聯會和野村投資銀行的數據,這會令中國的高鐵容量──即行使時速超過250公里的列車──多於全球其他地方的總和。

但在未來兩年仍有數十條路線將會落成之際,現存的高鐵網絡正被仔細查核。

評論員指出高鐵服務,例如今年啟用,長達1000公里的武廣高鐵,目前正以總承載量一半以下營運,今後決不可能賺取足夠清還興建時所借取的大量銀行貸款。

Eliot Gao 追加報導

Beijing reviews high-speed rail plans
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

Published: November 7 2010 19:56 | Last updated: November 7 2010 19:56

China’s Ministry of Railways is conducting a review of the country’s ambitious high-speed rail proposals after an influential state-backed think-tank raised questions about the affordability and practicality of the planned network.

In a report submitted by the China Academy of Science to the State Council, experts urged a rethink of the emphasis on massive infrastructure investment, particularly the bullet train expansion programme.

One of the concerns expressed in the report is the unsustainable level of debt that has propelled rail building projects across the country, particularly since the government launched its stimulus package in late 2008 to combat the effects of the global economic crisis.

The report found that the acceleration of infrastructure investment triggered by the stimulus package had caused a lack of integration between transport services across the country, leaving highways, subways, train stations and airports not properly connected.

Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, has seen the report and asked for further discussion of current high-speed rail plans, say people familiar with the matter.

The review – and possible scaling back – comes as provincial officials appear to have caught bullet train fever.

Local governments have between them asked for Beijing’s permission to expand the high-speed rail network by as much as 80 per cent above the already ambitious approved targets, according to analysts and Chinese media reports.

Under the current plan, the central government has authorised a high-speed network that will reach 16,000km by 2020 and service more than 90 per cent of the population.

But as part of the stimulus the government more than doubled its planned investments in railways for 2009 and 2010 and expected to have 13,000km of high-speed track by the end of 2012. That will give China more high-speed rail capacity – trains that travel at more than 250km an hour – than the rest of the world put together, according to data from the International Union of Railways and Nomura, the investment bank.

But with dozens of new lines scheduled to open in the next two years, the high-speed connections already in operation are being carefully scrutinised.

Critics point out that bullet train services, such as the 1,000km Wuhan to Guangzhou connection that opened this year, are operating at less than half their full capacity and will never make enough money to repay the large bank loans used to build them.

Additional reporting by Eliot Gao