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姚松炎

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港英樓價飊升同因熱錢投機

港英樓價飊升同因熱錢投機
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上星期英國公布樓價升幅創一年新高,達3.7% [1],然而與香港比升幅其實非常溫和,因為香港同期樓價升幅高達16%!不過過去5年,香港和英國的樓價升幅相約,差不多升了四成(圖1),在全球22個城市中,英港排名第11和第12名。兩地不但樓價升幅相似,成因分析也很相近。

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The Economist (2018) Global cities house-price index, Aug 9, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/08/09/global-cities-house-price-index

譬如 Sa (2017) 的研究顯示外來資本流入推升樓價,另外英國著名經濟學者 Ann Pettifor (2018a, 2018b) 對近年英國樓價飊升的原因與bitcoin價格飊升的原因相提並論,認為皆因投機,而非供應!

"It’s speculation in the property market that is fuelling stratospheric house price rises, not shortage of supply." (Pettifor, 2018a)

她指出當前的高樓價的最好解釋是市場金融化,而不是供應短缺。她特別提到根據The Evening Standard的報導,在過去六年來自非本地買家為英國房地產提供了超過1000億英鎊的資金。當全球資本流動遘上廉價的抵押貸款,房價上漲有因。

“According to the Evening Standard wealthy global, non-resident buyers have funnelled more than £100 billion into UK property over the last six years. When these footloose, often fraudulent global capital flows are fused with cheap mortgage credit – house prices rise.”(Pettifor, 2018b) 無獨有偶,與香港一樣,英國政府也把樓價飊升原因推諉為供應不足,她認為政府諉過供應不足才可進一步補貼那些政府在建築業、房地產市場和金融行業的親密盟友。

“This argument provides cover for further taxpayer-funded subsidies and tax breaks to the government’s property-owning friends, its close allies in the construction industry and property market; and to its supporters in the City of London.”(Pettifor, 2018b)

她引述最少三份專家分析支持她的論點,包括Hudson (2017)和Mulheirn (2017),另外提出了兩個論據反駁供應不足理論,皆適用於香港:

2001-2015年間,英國房屋增長12%,家庭數只增長10%,即使預留合理的空置率及第二套房,房屋數量仍高於家庭數,所以供應不足論不成立。

2006年的愛爾蘭房屋落成量破紀錄,以一個400萬人口的國家,一年建屋量竟達9萬間,但樓價仍然上升11%。

[ 1] Collinson, P. (2018) House prices rose at fastest rate in almost a year, says Halifax, The Guardian, Sep 7.
[2] Sa, F. (2017) Effect of Foreign Investors on Local Housing Markets: Evidence from the UK, working paper, School of Management & Business, Kingís College London.
[3] Pettifor, A. (2018a) Why building more homes will not solve Britain's housing crisis, The Guardian, Jan 27.
[4] Pettifor, A. (2018b) The Financialisation of the Housing Market, February 7.
[5] Hudson, N. (2017) What Would Success Look Like?
[6] Mulheirn, I. (2017) Part 3: Why are prices so high and will building more bring them down?

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