Recent polls suggests those supporting the occupy movement have dropped from 38% to 33%, with those against rising from 36% to 44%. This hardly comes at a surprise, as public sympathy against the initial overreaction by the police is replaced by skepticism over the hard-line stance of the pan-democrats and the HKFS.
On top of that, the pan-democrats are facing a political toxic decision when Legco convenes to approve the proposal next year: vote to veto, and they would’ve thrown away a chance to move towards a freer democracy, and lose future popular support; vote to approve, and they would’ve backtracked of months of rhetoric and lose existing support in the process.
The lack of any, let alone desirable outcome remain a barrier for many people to support the occupy movement. Without any grounds of concession from the HKFS and pan-democrats, the deadlock is likely to remain and public sentiment will continue to turn against the movement.
Further, for the occupy movement to succeed, leverage can only be gained through inflicting costs at the right people, being the government or the senior government officials. Instead, it has been the students and the protesters, as well as innocent bystanders such as the transport industry and commercial properties who have been bearing much of the costs.
The way forward, then, is simple. Occupiers must take a step back and accept that truly democratic Chief Executive elections in 2017 is not a realistic prospect. A compromise proposal must be developed for the pan-democrats to vote through next year. The key is to ensure that the concession is designed to win public sentiment back through a show of good will and a demonstration that an outcome is possible. Overwhelming popular support remains a powerful leverage in the negotiation for a more democratic Hong Kong.
On top of that, occupiers might also choose a second leverage, which is inflicting sufficient costs on the senior government officials by paralyzing the government, such that they are forced to accept the compromise offer from the pro-democracy camp.
Any shift in strategy should be aimed at 2022, or even 2027. In the meantime, focus should be given to winning a majority back in the 2016 Legco elections. This means it is ever more important for the pro-democracy camp to first find the right compromise proposal to vote through next year.