全球盤點（Global Stocktake, GST）是《巴黎氣候協議》的核心機制，旨在全面評估全球應對氣候變化的共同進展，並為未來十年的氣候行動提供方向。這機制聚焦減緩、適應、融資、科技與能力建設等多個領域，目標是確保升溫控制在1.5°C以內，並強化國家自主貢獻（Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs）的承諾。根據《巴黎氣候協議》第14條規定，GST每五年進行一次，首次全球盤點（GST-1）已於2023年阿聯酋COP28完成，而第二次盤點（GST-2）預定於2028年COP33進行。
然而，首次全球盤點的結果揭示了國際深層矛盾。儘管GST-1採用創新對話方式，提升了各方參與度，但結果顯示當前各國行動未及進取，只能將升溫限制在2.4-2.6°C之間，與1.5°C目標有顯著差距。這評估表明了全球需要更大力度的行動，包括加速可再生能源發展、提升能源效率以及逐步淘汰化石燃料。可惜，隨後在COP29的跟進工作中，這些承諾的落實進展相當有限，尤其是在化石燃料相關議題上，各國的分歧進一步擴大。
首次全球盤點的挑戰與分歧
在COP28中，GST-1已經確立了三大優先事項：三倍增長可再生能源容量、提升能源效率及逐步淘汰化石燃料。然而，這些目標在COP29的後續談判中遇到了嚴峻挑戰。主要產油國強烈反對淘汰化石燃料的提議，並試圖削弱GST在減排行動中的作用。同時，這些國家抵制將GST結果與更新NDC強制掛勾，認為這超出了《巴黎氣候協議》的範疇，導致全球氣候行動的進程停滯不前。
此外，GST的公正性（Equity）也受到質疑。《巴黎氣候協議》強調「共同但有區別的責任和各自能力原則」（CBDR-RC），要求發達國家承擔更多責任，加速減排行動，並協助發展中國家應對氣候變化。但GST-1的重點更多集中於「集體進展」，忽略了針對發達國家行動成效的評估，引起發展中國家的不滿。同時，融資問題也成為關鍵矛盾。發達國家希望將GST成果反映在所有NDC中，而發展中國家則強調，只有在確保充足資金支持的前提下，才能承諾更高的氣候目標。
非政府組織的參與度同樣不足。儘管GST對話形式創新，但在實際操作中，部分非政府組織的聲音未能被充分納入，尤其是在欠缺傳譯服務的情況下，許多弱勢群體和邊緣社區的訴求未能有效體現在盤點結果中，進一步加劇了對公平與包容原則落實的擔憂。
波恩會議冀提高NDC目標 助GST重啟進程
儘管挑戰重重，波恩會議仍有望推進GST發展，關鍵是各國必須集中精力收窄差距及提升包容性，促成在COP30上達成共識，落實GST的結果。尤其是通過GST與NDC年度對話，促進GST結果，加快發展可再生能源和淘汰化石燃料，反映在各國即將提交的NDC上，亦促進各國提升NDC的目標，加強符合1.5度目標的信心。同時，政府間氣候變化專門委員會（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC） 正在展開的第七次評估周期（AR7），應與GST-2的時間安排保持一致，確保GST反映最新研究成果，增強GST建議的可信度，對下一次 NDC 產生影響力。
香港的角色與啟示：從全球到地方的行動
低碳想創坊深信，全球盤點的進展為香港氣候行動提供了重要參考。《香港氣候行動藍圖2050》目前缺乏針對氣候行動的全面監測與評估機制，尤其在可再生能源發展方面，缺乏具體目標和時間表。香港作為國際城市，應積極參與全球能源轉型，通過推動科技創新和金融支持，為區域性和全球性氣候行動提供助力。香港可以在國際合作中發揮更大的影響力，例如支持低碳技術的研究與應用，並探索如何將GST的成果與本地氣候政策更加緊密地結合。
2025 Bonn Climate Conference Special Feature: The Global Stocktake (GST)
The Global Stocktake (GST) is a cornerstone mechanism of the Paris Agreement, designed to comprehensively assess global progress in addressing climate change and provide strategic guidance for the next decade of climate action. This process spans multiple key areas, including mitigation, adaptation, financing, technology, and capacity building. Its overarching goal is to ensure global temperature rise remains within 1.5°C, while strengthening the commitments of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). As outlined in Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, the GST is conducted every five years. The first Global Stocktake (GST-1) was completed during COP28 in 2023, hosted by the UAE, with the second iteration (GST-2) scheduled for COP33 in 2028.
However, the results of GST-1 exposed deep-rooted international tensions. While the innovative dialogue approach used during GST-1 successfully increased participation from various stakeholders, the findings revealed that current parties’ actions fall short of what is necessary. Based on these efforts, global warming can only be limited to 2.4–2.6°C, well above the 1.5°C target. This assessment underscores the urgent need for stronger action, including accelerating the development of renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and phasing out fossil fuels. Unfortunately, progress on these commitments has been minimal since COP28, and follow-up discussions at COP29 experienced significant setbacks, particularly on fossil fuel-related issues, where divisions among countries widened further.
Challenges and Divisions in GST-1
During COP28, GST-1 identified three key commitments for global action: Tripling renewable energy capacity; Doubling energy efficiency, and Phasing out fossil fuels. However, these goals faced serious challenges in the subsequent negotiations at COP29. Major oil-producing countries strongly opposed proposals to phase out fossil fuels and sought to dilute the GST’s role in driving stronger mitigation efforts. Additionally, these countries resisted linking GST outcomes to mandatory updates of NDCs, arguing that such a move exceeded the scope of the Paris Agreement. This resistance has stalled the progress of global climate action.
The issue of equity within the GST has also been a point of contention. The Paris Agreement emphasises the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), which calls on developed countries to shoulder greater responsibility for reducing emissions and supporting developing countries in addressing climate challenges. However, GST-1 placed greater focus on collective progress, rather than evaluating the specific contributions of developed countries. This omission has led to dissatisfaction among developing countries.
Financing has further deepened the divide. Developed countries have pushed for GST results to be reflected in the NDCs of all countries, while developing countries have argued that achieving more ambitious climate goals is contingent on the provision of sufficient financial support. Without guarantees of adequate funding, developing countries remain hesitant to commit to higher climate targets.
The involvement of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the GST process has been insufficient. Despite the innovative dialogue format of GST, many NGO voices were not fully incorporated into the process. This was particularly evident in cases where a lack of translation services prevented marginalised and vulnerable communities from expressing their concerns effectively. As a result, their priorities were not adequately reflected in the GST outcomes, further exacerbating concerns about the implementation of fairness and inclusivity principles.
Raising NDC Ambitions and Restarting GST Progress in Bonn
Despite these challenges, the Bonn Conference offers a critical opportunity to advance the GST process. The key lies in narrowing the gaps between countries, enhancing inclusivity, and working toward a consensus at COP30, which will enable the practical implementation of GST findings. One promising avenue is leveraging the annual GST-NDC dialogues to integrate GST outcomes into the development of NDCs. This could accelerate progress in renewable energy expansion and fossil fuel phase-outs, ensuring that updated NDCs reflect stronger commitments aligned with the 1.5°C target.
Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is currently conducting its Seventh Assessment Cycle (AR7). The GST process can incorporate the latest scientific research by aligning the release of AR7 findings with the timeline of GST-2, increasing the credibility of its recommendations and influencing the next round of NDC updates.
Hong Kong’s Role and Lessons: From Global to Local Action
The progress of the GST provides a valuable reference for Hong Kong’s climate action efforts. Currently, the Hong Kong Climate Action Plan 2050 lacks a comprehensive mechanism for monitoring and evaluating climate actions, particularly in the development of renewable energy, where specific targets and timelines are absent. As an international city, Hong Kong should actively participate in the global energy transition by promoting technological innovation and financial support, contributing to both regional and global climate action.
Hong Kong has the potential to wield greater influence in international collaborations by supporting the research and application of low-carbon technologies and exploring ways to integrate GST outcomes more closely with local climate policies. By doing so, Hong Kong can enhance its role as a leader in climate adaptation and mitigation, while aligning its policies with global efforts to combat climate change.
（本網歡迎各界投稿，文章內容為作者個人意見，並不代表本網立場。）